New Delhi [India], June 4 (ANI): India's solar capacity will require annual installations to sustain a 50 GW trajectory consistently to reach its national target of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity, according to a report by Rubix Data Sciences.

'Looking ahead, India's solar capacity is expected to reach 280-300 GW by 2030, in support of the national target of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity, an ambition that will require annual installations to sustain a 50 GW trajectory consistently,' the report said.

The report noted that against a backdrop of rising US-Iran tensions and surging oil prices, India is entering a pivotal phase of expansion. Solar power is increasingly becoming central to India's long-term energy security strategy, particularly because the country imports more than 85 per cent of its crude oil requirements.

The Rubix Data Sciences report, titled 'Solar Energy Update', noted that FY2026 marks a watershed year for India's solar growth. Cumulative installed solar capacity reached 150.26 GW as of March 31, 2026, crossing the 150 GW milestone. FY2026 also recorded the highest-ever annual solar addition of 44.61 GW, exceeding the government target of 34 GW.

India added 119 GW of solar module capacity in 2025, taking total module capacity to approximately 210 GW. This far exceeds domestic demand of 40-45 GW annually, with capacity utilisation falling to around 40 per cent. As per the report, with this growth, India is poised to become the world's second-largest solar market in 2026 in terms of annual installations, however, the domestic manufacturing sector still faces clear challenges.

The export landscape also faces pressure. Solar PV exports fell to USD 1.12 billion in FY2025, with 97 percent directed to the US market. This dependency became critically exposed when combined US tariffs exceeded 200 percent in April 2026.

Tushar Bhaskar, President of Rubix Data Sciences, said, 'India has delivered a genuinely historic year in solar, 150 GW crossed, 44.61 GW added in a single year, and a credible path to becoming the world's second-largest market. But the sector is now entering a more difficult chapter.'

'Manufacturing capacity is running at roughly 40% utilisation, the US has effectively shut its door with tariffs above 200%, and nearly 30 GW of capacity is still based on the technology that the market is moving away from,' Bhaskar added.

He further noted that the companies that survive the next three years will be those that integrate upstream, upgrade to TOPCon, and find markets beyond America. 'India's solar ambition is real, but so is the consolidation ahead,' he said.

The report further details key government initiatives driving India's solar transition. The PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana covered approximately 22.7 lakh households as of January 2026, with the Union Budget 2026-27 allocating Rs 220 billion to the scheme. (ANI)